According to SBI Research, India is likely to get the tag of the 3rd largest economy in 2027 (or FY28) based on actual GDP data as on March 2023. The economic researchers at SBI Research have earlier projected year 2029 (FY30) for India to become the 3rd largest economy.
The SBI Research report mentions, the path taken by India since 2014 reveals that India is likely to get the tag of the 3rd largest economy in 2027 (or FY28) based on actual GDP data as on March 2023, a movement of 7 places upwards since 2014 when India was ranked 10th and 2 years earlier than our previous forecast of 2029. India should surpass both Japan & Germany in 2027 at the current rate of growth. This is a remarkable achievement by any standards. Interestingly, the incremental increase by India between 2022-2027, is more than the current size of Australia’s economy at $1.8 trillion! At this rate, India is likely to add $ 0.75 trillion in every 2 years, implying that India is all set to touch $20 trillion by 2047, at least on current numbers. India’s global share in GDP will cross 4% by 2027.
Behind this surge, India needs to grow by CAGR of 8.4% till 2027 (in dollar terms). This translates into 11.0-11.5% nominal GDP growth per annum (in Rs terms), which is eminently achievable with a 6.5-7% growth rate.
State-wise estimate indicates that at least two Indian states, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, will break the $500 billion mark in 2027 (or FY28) when India achieves the 3rd place in global economy. The GDP size of major Indian states in 2027 will be more than the size of some of the Asian and European countries like Vietnam, Norway and so on.
