Goldman Sachs Research, in a recent article “How India could rise to the world’s second-biggest economy” has projected India will have the world’s second-largest economy by 2075. “Over the next two decades, the dependency ratio of India will be one of the lowest among regional economies”, says Santanu Sengupta, Goldman Sachs Research’s India economist, pointing out that India’s population has one of the best ratios between its working-age population and its number of children and elderly. “So that really is the window for India to get it right in terms of setting up manufacturing capacity, continuing to grow services, continuing the growth of infrastructure.”
Currently, India is the world’s fifth-largest economy, behind Germany, Japan, China and the US. Recently, India has surpassed the United Kingdom to become the fifth largest economy. "Growth upside can come through higher productivity growth. India has taken a giant leap in terms of digitalization of the economy, both through wider penetration of Internet and mobile Internet. But along with that you’ve had the unique identification number, or what is called the Aadhaar, the world’s largest biometric ID system, by which you are now able to verify identification of the 1.4 billion population both online and physically. So it makes public service delivery much easier and more targeted. It widens the credit net, leads to smaller businesses getting more credit, and that can provide an upside to growth from an increase in productivity," says Santanu Sengupta.
