Equirus: Anti-Dumping Probe on HRC Imports Could Support Domestic Prices

The anti-dumping investigation initiated by India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) into imports of Hot Rolled Flat Products of Alloy or Non-Alloy Steel from China, Japan and Russia could further tighten import economics and support a gradual recovery in domestic HRC prices over the medium term if anti-dumping duties are eventually imposed, according to a research by Equirus.

However, near-term imports may remain elevated given India’s relatively lower safeguard duty (SGD) structure of 11.5% compared with other key importing regions such as the European Union and the United States, along with continued demand for imported HRC under the Advance Authorization Scheme for export-oriented steel pipe and tube projects.

Commenting on the development, Pranav Mehta, Associate Director – Equities, Equity Research at Equirus, said, “As we had highlighted earlier, HRC imports had jumped recently on the back of higher imports by metal pipe manufacturers, who were witnessing improved offtake from oil and gas projects in the Middle East. This development follows the recent implementation of safeguard duty (SGD) on imports of multiple flat steel products, including HRC.”

He added, “While the safeguard duty provides initial support to domestic HRC pricing, near-term imports may remain elevated given India’s relatively lower SGD/tariff structure (11.5%) compared with other key importing regions such as the EU and the US, along with continued demand for imported HRC under the Advance Authorization Scheme for export-oriented steel pipe and tube projects. However, if anti-dumping duties are imposed on imports from China, Japan and Russia following the investigation, import economics could tighten further and support a gradual recovery in domestic HRC prices over the medium term, broadly benefiting integrated steel producers and primary steel tube manufacturers that rely on domestic HRC as their feedstock.”

The investigation was initiated following an application filed by JSW Steel, JSW Vijaynagar Metallics and Jindal Steel Odisha., supported by Tata Steel and Steel Authority of India (SAIL). The domestic industry has alleged that import volumes from the three countries have increased sharply and are undercutting domestic prices, with the product being imported at dumped prices and causing material injury to the domestic industry.

The probe covers hot rolled flat products of alloy or non-alloy steel, not clad, plated or coated, of thickness up to 25 mm and width up to 2,100 mm. The product under consideration excludes hot rolled flat products of stainless steel. Key end-use sectors include automotive, oil and gas line pipes and exploration, cold rolled steel products, pipe manufacturing, general engineering and fabrication, construction, capital goods, and process equipment used in the cement, fertiliser, refinery and earth-moving industries.

The proposed period of investigation is January-December 2025, while the DGTR will examine injury to the domestic industry during FY23, FY24 and FY25. The applicants have also sought retrospective imposition of anti-dumping duties.

According to the DGTR notification, the application contains sufficient prima facie evidence of dumping, injury to the domestic industry and a causal link between the dumped imports and the alleged injury to justify initiation of the investigation.